Is Japanese politics becoming more and more ＂right＂ from Abe to Suga Yoshihide？
Abe and Suga Yoshihide. People’s visual data map
Recently, Japanese Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso and many other Japanese politicians have made false remarks about Taiwan, and under the Suga Yoshihide regime, the hawks’ arrogance has increased, and their hardline views on China have gradually increased.
"Japanese political circles frequently issue tough voices against China, including Taiwan-related remarks. The main reason is not that Japan’s domestic politics has undergone major changes. But it is undeniable that this is related to the political right-wing that has always been. " Waseda University professor and expert in political sociology, Noguchi Naoko, told The Paper.
The so-called right deviation of Japanese politics refers to the right-wing conservative forces and their tendency to gain the upper hand in Japanese political circles and influence government decision-making. Since former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe came to power for the second time, the trend of Japanese political right-wing has become more and more obvious, which has also spawned a group of young right-wing politicians and advocated the importance of strengthening the army and amending the constitution. Last summer, Abe retired to the second line due to illness, and Suga Yoshihide, who is not affiliated with any faction, is generally considered to be less conservative in political stance than his predecessor. But this year, the Suga Yoshihide administration has frequently challenged the "red line" on the Taiwan Province issue.
Koichi Nakano, a professor of political science in sophia university, Japan, told The Paper that since the Liberal Democratic Party is still dominated by right-wing forces such as the "Japan Conference", politicians who want to run for the prime minister and influence the decision-making process may make remarks that cater to the right. Koichi Nakano pointed out the background of a series of "excessive remarks" made by Japanese politicians recently — — "After the Olympic Games, the presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party and the election of the House of Representatives will be ushered in, and a power struggle is bound to start."
The "Pro-Taiwan" Origin of Japanese Right Wing
At the end of June, Japan’s deputy defense minister, Taixiu Zhongshan, falsely called Taiwan Province a so-called "country", and defense minister Nobuo Kishi said that Zhongshan’s views did not represent the position of the Japanese government. However, as soon as Nobuo Kishi’s voice fell, Taro Aso made another remark about "defending Taiwan Province". China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said at a regular press conference on July 6th that Aso’s remarks were extremely wrong and dangerous.
Shoguchi Naoko pointed out that the so-called "Taiwan Province complex" in the Japanese right wing may be traced back to the Youth League in the 1970s, which once advocated "anti-China and pro-Taiwan" within the Liberal Democratic Party. Although the Youth League was dissolved long ago, some key members and their descendants are still active in the political arena.
Sun Yat-sen Taixiu’s father, Sun Yat-sen Zhenghui, is a member of the Qinglan Club. In 2003, Sun Yat-sen Zhenghui passed on the political territory inherited from his mother to his eldest son, Sun Yat-sen Taixiu, and retired from politics.
The Politics of Blood — — The Story of Qinglan Club introduces that in 1973, some conservative hardliners in the Liberal Democratic Party formed a policy group named "Qinglan", which meant to blow a refreshing wind to the chaotic Japanese political circles. Its members included right-wing politician Shintaro Ishihara and former Prime Minister Mori Yoshiro. At that time, just after the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Taiwan Province was realized, Qinglan Society opposed Japan’s severance of relations with the Japanese authorities and adhered to its anti-China stance, which was regarded by the media as a far-right group.
Since then, due to differences in the internal position of the Youth League on China, it was dissolved only six years after its establishment, but some members inherited the will of this group and founded a new organization. Since the 1990s, due to historical issues, the right wing within the Liberal Democratic Party has become more organized and influential, and its advocacy has also extended from historical issues to cultural traditions, territory and security.
The most typical case of right-wing organization is the emergence of "Japan Conference", which has nearly 40,000 members and headquarters in 47 prefectures and counties, and is regarded as one of the root causes of Japanese political right deviation. As the largest right-wing organization in Japan, the "Japan Conference" used the influence of Shinzo Abe to implement the political right-wing line, and cultivated "spokespersons" in political circles to promote conservative political opinions.
"Conservatism and right deviation in Japanese politics have always existed and are intensifying." Wang Guangtao, an associate researcher at the Center for Japanese Studies at Fudan University, told The Paper that this right deviation was on the one hand due to the changes in the post-war international situation, and on the other hand, Japan believed that the surrounding environment had changed and it was necessary to expand its defense under the geopolitical competition in East Asia, which was in line with the right-wing forces’ idea of expanding armaments and seeking to achieve a military power, and finally formed a joint force.
From Abe to Suga Yoshihide
As a conservative party, the Liberal Democratic Party has been in power for a long time, which makes Japanese politics generally conservative. After Abe took office, he visited the Yasukuni Shrine, lifted the ban on collective self-defense, signed the Guidelines for Japan-US Defense Cooperation, and promoted constitutional amendment to accelerate the right deviation.
"After Abe came to power, Japan’s conservative line was different from that established by former Prime Minister Ji Tianmao ‘ Conservative capital flow ’ 。” Zhang Yong, deputy director and researcher of the Foreign Affairs Office of the Institute of Japanese Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said to The Paper that the "Yoshida Line" was relatively moderate and conservative, and compared with self-reliance, it was more economical and less armament. This relatively moderate and conservative line was also in line with Japan’s national conditions at that time.
Zhang Yong said that when Abe was in power, he wanted to be a "fighting politician" — — The difference between "war" and "no war" lies in whether you dare to clearly advocate Japan’s interests. Abe’s "fighting type" is embodied in his intention to get rid of the status of a defeated country, seek to amend the constitution and strengthen the army, and actively break through the post-war forbidden zone on security issues.
After Abe stepped down, Japanese politics characterized by conservatism and right deviation did not come to an end, and the power of "Japan Conference" still existed. Of the 20 cabinet members in Suga Yoshihide, 14 are members of the "Japan Conference Parliamentarians’ Symposium", a nonpartisan parliamentary alliance that supports the "Japan Conference", and most of Abe’s cabinet members were also members of this organization. However, Japanese media pointed out that Suga Yoshihide’s right-wing inclination is not serious, and the influence of the "Japan Conference" on the Japanese government may not reach the level of Abe’s administration.
"From the Abe regime to the Kan regime, Japanese politics has not become more rightist." Koichi Nakano believes that Suga Yoshihide is not as concerned about diplomatic and security issues as Abe, but is led by the will of the US government.
Suga Yoshihide, who inherited Abe’s line, has repeatedly stated that it is necessary to build a stable relationship with China and not to build an encirclement of China, but it has not really been fulfilled in practical actions. I think that Japan’s tough stance towards China is in line with the so-called "China threat theory" in the world to some extent. Some Japanese politicians follow the wind, reaffirm the interests of the right wing, and use China to create topics in order to gain wide support within the right wing.
Wang Guangtao believes that when it comes to specific issues such as Taiwan Province, Diaoyu Island and South China Sea, Japan claims that China has changed the status quo and is forced to respond. This response is supported in Japan, and it is actually assisting the right-wing forces.
"Dilemma" under Conservative Ecology
Japan’s political right deviation has deduced a series of conservative ideas, which have been imperceptibly influencing Japan’s internal affairs and diplomacy. At the same time, the conservative atmosphere also makes the party politics in this country deviate from the original line. On the surface, it is a multi-party system, but it cannot form a mechanism of party rotation.
Zhang Yong said that the increasingly conservative Japanese political ecology is not conducive to the political parties advocating innovation. At present, Japan’s public opinion environment and political system only allow the Japanese Socialist Party, communist party and other political parties to play their roles as opposition parties.
According to the original design of Japanese politicians such as Nakasone Yasuhiro and Ichiro Ozawa, Japan should be governed by two major political parties in turn, just like the United States. The reality is that after the establishment of the Liberal Democratic Party in 1955, the Liberal Democratic Party remained in power except for 1993-1994 and 2009-2012.
Japanese media often publish editorials that "the opposition party is too weak". Even if the Liberal Democratic Party performs in general, it is difficult to find a more suitable political party to replace it. After Abe resigned last year, the two major opposition parties in Japan merged into a new political party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, and the support rate continued to be low. "Daily News" issued a document at the end of last year saying that the Liberal Democratic Party did not perform well in the epidemic, and the Constitutional Democratic Party, as the largest opposition party, did not win more support. It is difficult for the opposition party to do anything, which leads to the ruling party becoming less and less concerned about the opinions of voters.
"If the Liberal Democratic Party is in power, there may be problems in the mechanism of cultivating reserve talents within the party, and other political parties will also lose their ability to govern." Zhang Yong pointed out that after Abe was in power for a long time, the shortage of reserve talents in the Liberal Democratic Party has emerged.
Suga Yoshihide’s term as president of the Liberal Democratic Party will come to an end at the end of September this year, and there is no clear idea about the successor of the "post-Kan era". Abe put forward four candidates in an interview in May — — Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi Toshimitsu, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kato Katsunobu, Liberal Democratic Party Chief Investigator Shimomura Bowen and Liberal Democratic Party Chief Investigator kishida fumio, but none of them showed strong competitiveness.
"Yomiuri Shimbun" recently reported that it was long ago that the presidential candidates were eager to report their names, but there was silence in the Liberal Democratic Party. "As long as nothing excessive happens, Prime Minister Kan will be re-elected." Both young MPs and veteran politicians in the party say this. It’s understandable if Suga Yoshihide’s political achievements are remarkable, but a poll in July showed that the support rate of Kan’s cabinet dropped to 33%, the lowest since he took office.
After the Tokyo Olympic Games, Japan will usher in a political "earthquake", and it is hard to predict whether it will continue to tilt to the right.