[Global Times special correspondent Zhang Yifan Liu Yupeng] With the continuous escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, both sides have invested a large number of combatants while throwing countless weapons and equipment into the battlefield. As the basic element of war, the problem of personnel is testing the sustained combat capability of Russia and Ukraine. On the 24th, Uzbekistan announced that it will start a new round of recruitment mobilization, and relevant people under the age of 60 will receive recruitment notices. The latest conscription in Uzbekistan has aroused great concern from the outside world. Does this move mean that the Ukrainian army will replenish its troops for a large-scale counterattack, or does it cause serious losses of its own troops due to continuous combat operations? How much potential does Ukraine have for military mobilization? In addition to the number of soldiers, from the actual battlefield of Russia and Ukraine, due to the tight war, temporary recruits are often deployed to the battlefield after receiving short training, so future combat operations also put forward high requirements for the military literacy of the latest recruits of Russia and Ukraine.
Ukraine once again recruited on a large scale.
According to the Russian Independent newspaper reported on the 25th, Maksimov, head of the center for conscription and social support in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, revealed in an interview published on the 24th that Kiev has started a new round of mobilization. Maksimov said: "We must increase our potential and increase the number of troops. We saw that our army was attacking in some directions. Of course, we must have a considerable number of troops. I believe that mobilization will continue. This is necessary. The Ukrainian army needs men, not only for defense, but also for attack to liberate our territory. "
Uzbekistan pointed out that under the current situation, mobilization will last until 2023. On the question of who is expected to be the first to receive the draft notice, Maksimov’s answer is all those who have the obligation to perform military service. The Ukrainian Ministry of National Defense recently explained to reporters that, considering the continuous wartime state of the country, the draft notice can be issued at any time and place, as long as it does not violate the law. According to an article by the Ukrainian National News Agency on the 24th, the Ukrainian army needs to be replenished, which is why it is necessary to continue to mobilize. It is expected that all conscripts under the age of 60 will receive a draft summons.
In fact, this is not the first time that the Ukrainian government has carried out recruitment mobilization after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. According to the Ukrainian National News Agency, Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov said in a network meeting on July 8 that at present, Ukraine has mobilized more than 700,000 armed forces soldiers, 90,000 national guard soldiers, 60,000 border guards soldiers and 100,000 national police officers, and mobilized more than 1 million troops.
On October 23, local time, Ukrainian soldiers fired at Russian positions in Donetsk.
Some analysts believe that in this context, it remains to be seen how much military mobilization potential can be tapped by the call-up order issued by the Ukrainian government. However, there are also views that people under the age of 60 required by the latest conscription order cannot be regarded as direct evidence of Ukraine’s extreme lack of combatants. Because the Ukrainian recruitment standard after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been set at this age.
Russian newspaper Izvestia reported on the 24th that Alexei Leonkov, editor of Russian magazine "National Arsenal", said that Ukraine still has mobilization potential — — Some population groups have not yet participated in military operations, and the mobilization has hardly affected the western part of the country. Previously, the recruitment mobilization was mainly from the eastern and central regions of the country, and the western region was not affected. However, it has been proved that Ukraine’s mobilization resources are not unlimited, so Ukraine must find new ways to supplement the army. At present, the main question is where Ukraine will recruit and whether Ukraine can complete the recruitment within the necessary time.
According to a report by the Russian Federation News Agency on the 24th, Oleg Chalev, a former member of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, said that Kiev’s desire to continue to mobilize is understandable. The fact is that Ukraine has the ability to train and arm about 50,000 people every month with the help of the European Union. The Ukrainian army carried out large-scale military mobilization before, but the Ukrainian armed forces suffered heavy losses in the battle. According to various data, 300,000 to 400,000 conscripts can no longer fight because of various factors, so Ukrainian military mobilization will continue to maintain the superiority of the armed forces in numbers.
The stalemate in war requires high quality of soldiers.
Judging from the current development and changes of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, while Russia is using precision-guided ammunition and air-to-air ammunition to kill and destroy the infrastructure in Ukraine on a large scale, the ground battlefield is still in a state of "fighting".
In eastern Ukraine, the two sides launched a fierce battle along the Klimina-Swatovo line, and it was difficult to win or lose in many locations. According to the Russian news, the Ukrainian army used the "Haimas" rocket launcher to continue to attack Russian targets in the Lugansk region. In the Donetsk region, the Russian army continued to launch attacks, focusing on the offensive around Bakhmut.
In Kherson, southern Ukraine, Russian troops are setting up reserve positions near Dnieper River to prepare for defending Hellson. The General Staff of the Ukrainian army claimed that the Russian army continued to lay mines on the main roads in Kherson Prefecture in an attempt to stop the Ukrainian army’s counterattack. The Southern Combat Command of the Ukrainian Army also stressed that the Russian army is stepping up the construction of defensive positions in the process of evacuating civilian institutions and management personnel. Kirilo Budanov, director of defense intelligence of the Ukrainian army, said recently that although the Russian army is carrying out evacuation operations in Hellson, it has created the illusion that "everything has been evacuated". In fact, the Russian army is deploying troops in Hellson and preparing to launch defensive operations in the city. Budanov declared that Russian troops will meet the fate of Ukrainian troops in upor, Mali in Hellson, and it is expected that Ukrainian troops will take Hellson by the end of this year.
An anonymous military expert told the Global Times reporter that from the overall situation of the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the war between the two sides has been deadlocked and the long front is jagged. According to Uzbekistan, the fighting line between the two sides is now more than 2,000 kilometers long. This jagged state requires extremely high combat quality of individual soldiers. Both sides often face a combat environment of infiltration and reverse osmosis, maneuvering and anti-maneuvering. For newly recruited recruits, this battlefield form is a "nightmare".
Both Russia and Ukraine may face the problem of the quality of their troops.
Like the Ukrainian army, the Russian army seems to be facing a shortage of high-quality soldiers. Not long ago, the Russian government issued a mobilization order to recruit 300,000 people to join the army. The American War Research Institute claims that the Russian soldiers mobilized and deployed to fill the shortage of front-line personnel in the conflict are affecting the combat effectiveness of the Russian army. At the same time, due to the needs of the war, a large number of officers and non-commissioned officers in Russian military training institutions were sent to the front line to fight, and casualties occurred, which also affected the Russian military training system. If there is a lack of professional instructors in training institutions, the training quality of recruits will be greatly reduced.
The analysis of the Russian army by the American War Institute also applies to the Ukrainian army, and the situation of the Ukrainian army is even worse. The most elite force of the Ukrainian army is the troops deployed in Donbass area since 2014, but these troops have already produced huge consumption in the combat operations in the first half of this year. Now the Ukrainian soldiers are supplemented later and can only learn while fighting. The Ukrainian army also lacks training personnel and facilities, and what’s worse, the Ukrainian army lacks a relatively stable rear, and facilities such as training institutions must be the key targets of the Russian army.
In addition, the most crucial point is that at present, the Ukrainian army mainly relies on military assistance provided by the United States and the West to carry out counterattacks. The weapons and equipment used by the Ukrainian army in counterattacks are varied and come from many countries. Under the repeated call-up orders, the basic quality of the enlisted soldiers must be "one generation is not as good as the next". In the case of the expansion and long-term conflict between Russia and Ukraine, whether Ukrainian soldiers can effectively control the weapons and equipment provided by the United States and the West in the future may be a huge challenge.
