The process of ＂Brexit＂ is full of twists and turns. Why do 15 countries ＂claim＂ from the EU and Britain？

　　Xia Lan Morgan, the owner of the grocery store on the northern border of Ireland, began to stop relying solely on buying goods from Britain. (Xinhua News Agency)

　　Since Britain’s "Brexit" process began, the international community has mostly focused on the relationship between Britain and the European Union. However, with the "Brexit" date looming, non-EU countries began to turn their attention to the impact of "Brexit" on themselves. At present, the common trading partners of Britain and the European Union, including the United States and Australia, are beginning to worry about whether they can still enjoy the same tariff preferences after Brexit and whether they will lose their original market access opportunities … …

　　Many countries demand trade compensation.

　　According to a report by the BBC on the 14th, at an internal meeting of the World Trade Organization, 15 countries, including the United States, India, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, Uruguay, China, Russia, Mexico, South Korea, Japan, Paraguay, Argentina and Switzerland, demanded trade compensation from Britain and the European Union for the impact of Britain’s "Brexit" on themselves to ensure that their domestic enterprises would not "leave" in Britain.

　　Among them, tariff quotas have become the focus of discussion in 15 countries. According to WTO regulations, tariff quotas ensure that WTO members can export specific kinds of goods to the EU with zero or low tariffs. At present, the whole EU, including Britain, implements a unified tariff quota. Britain’s "Brexit" will force Britain and other EU member states to make a new distribution of tariff quotas.

　　Based on this, Sputnik reported that Britain and the European Union may eventually use some or even all tariff quotas, thus reducing the market access opportunities of other WTO members. In the statement, New Zealand said that (in any case), the adjustment of tariff quotas will obviously lead to huge economic losses for many countries, which will not only affect the flexibility of export of related products every year, but also lead to the situation that the quotas are too small to meet the trade needs of various countries.

　　At present, Australia’s beef and mutton exports have suffered losses. Australia said that many enterprises stopped exporting beef and mutton before Christmas because they were uncertain about how the tariff quotas would change. According to US media reports, the export of pork and wine in the United States and cloth in India may also be affected in the future.

　　According to Irish Radio and Television, non-EU countries are worried that their domestic enterprises will lose both the UK and EU markets after Brexit. In a statement submitted to the WTO, the United States wrote: "We will soon be squeezed out and then lose the opportunity to enter these two major markets." New Zealand also said that WTO members outside Europe will be hit by not getting the original quota.

　　There are many problems to be solved

　　According to the British Guardian, a spokesman for the British Department of International Trade said that they have drawn up a tariff concession table for imported goods within the framework of the World Trade Organization and negotiated with the affected countries in accordance with Article 28 of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) to maintain the existing balance of rights and obligations between Britain and its trading partners. Earlier, the British government has repeatedly stressed that Britain will become a natural trading partner of the United States, Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and other countries after Brexit.

　　In the face of the indecisive "Brexit" deadlock, the concerns of representatives of many countries have not been alleviated.

　　Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of China Institute of International Studies, pointed out in an interview with this newspaper that "the demands of 15 countries are both universal and special. Changes in the relationship between Britain and the European Union will affect all economies that trade with both sides. Therefore, the demand of 15 countries for adjustment of trade quotas can be regarded as the voice of most countries. In addition, ‘ Brexit ’ The trade impact will be concentrated in the trade of specific countries. For example, countries such as the United States and Australia that rely heavily on European trade in agricultural products will be more affected. "

　　Cui Hongjian concluded: "After Britain leaves the EU, will it still follow the previous EU tariff quota system for these countries? If not, can these countries still enjoy preferential tariffs on certain categories of goods exported to Britain? These issues are the main points of concern to many countries. "

　　In this regard, Ding Chun, director of the Center for European Studies at Fudan University, gave the key word "personalization". "Trade adjustment, including tariff quotas, is affirmative. However, there is a lot of room for Britain to choose and redefine itself. It is estimated that Britain can reach cooperation one by one depending on the specific economic and trade exchanges between countries in the future. " In an interview with this newspaper, Ding Chun said that among the 15 countries that made this appeal, there are Commonwealth countries, some have maintained good economic and trade relations with Britain, and some are big countries like the United States. According to the distance of the relationship, Britain will be more flexible in dealing with economic and trade relations and will make a "personalized" adjustment.

　　Formulate countermeasures in advance.

　　Britain’s repeatedly changed "Brexit" date has made this issue more complicated. From the referendum on "Brexit" in 2016 to the present, the process of "Brexit" is like a seesaw battle. On December 12th, Britain’s third general election in recent years is coming, which also adds more uncertainty to the "Brexit" scheduled to be completed at the end of January next year.

　　During this period, the voice calling for Britain to stay in Europe also came to the table. On 13th, donald tusk, the outgoing President of the European Council, gave a speech at the European Academy in Bruges, Belgium, warning that "Britain can only play a global role as a part of a united Europe" and appealed to British people who want to stay in Europe to make good use of the upcoming general election.

　　In this regard, Ding Chun said: "The voice of staying in Europe has always existed, but the possibility of staying in Europe is not great. Now as soon as possible ‘ Brexit ’ Agreement is the way out. The choice Britain is facing now is soft or hard, how to take off, when to take off and how long it will take … …”

　　"Uncertainty" is still the main tone in this "Brexit" process. "Britain ‘ Brexit ’ The impact is huge, complex and unpredictable. Britain’s financial status will certainly be affected, but how it will happen depends on the constraints of various factors in the future. It is not easy to draw a conclusion now. " Ding Chun said.

　　Faced with all kinds of uncertainties brought by "Brexit", how should the international community avoid possible trade shocks?

　　"The international community should make preparations in advance, especially the most vulnerable enterprises in various countries should actively find a way out. The most important thing is that each country should proceed from its own economic and trade situation and put forward countermeasures and take corresponding actions as soon as possible according to its own different industrial chains and value chains. " Ding Chun said, "At the same time, the industrial structure and foreign trade structure between Britain and the European Union also have certain differences and their own uniqueness, and all countries should take these factors into account when taking action."